bitcoin

The Base, Bullish, and Bearish Cases for Bitcoin Returns CryptoBlog


Darius Dale is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-level macro risk management processes.

Key points to remember

The distribution of likely economic outcomes – and by extension, financial market outcomes – is as flat and wide as it has been in recent years. 42 Macro’s deflation base case predicts an expected return of -10% annualized for bitcoin. Our bullish scenario of deflation plus lower key rates forecasts an expected return of +29% annualized for bitcoin. Our bearish deflation and quantitative easing case calls for an expected return of -37% annualized for bitcoin. Importantly, all three scenarios are equally likely over the next three to six months. If we seemed very confident to issue sell warnings at every bitcoin price low from early December through July, we should seem equally unconvinced today.

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